Top 12 Breakdown

Before we finally begin with the final 12 tomorrow night I wanted to take the time to give my little analysis of the Top 12 and who I think stands a chance to win it all. Unlike last year, I think there are only a handful of contestants that could realistically win this year. The rest are just filler until we get to that point.

Blake Lewis - I've been saying all along that I think Blake is a refreshing contestant. He's very current and is picking songs that are also current and radio friendly. He, along with Chris R., is the first true male "pop" singer in the competition and I for one love it. It's nice to see something different from the guys. Pros: He's different. He's picking songs that are out of the box and haven't been done on Idol before. He also beatboxes which allows him to add new elements to each song he does. Cons: The beatboxing has the possibility to get old. Plus, will he be able to rely on the beatboxing once the theme weeks begin? Beatboxing during "Love Song" week? Probably not.

Brandon Rogers - In Brandon's initial audition he showed an amazing soulful voice that I thought would sound very nice on the Idol stage. However, since then we haven't been able to hear that anymore. I think that Brandon is letting his nerves get to him and that's affecting his performances each week. On top of that, his song choices haven't been that stellar. If he wants to make the full transition from backup singer to front man he's going to need to come out swinging and just go for it each week. Pros: He's got a great voice that, when showcased on the right song, will blow people away. Cons: Lack of confidence and poor song choices thus far make him a candidate for an early exit. He really needs to gather himself and just go for it these early weeks.

Chris Richardson - Like Blake, I think Chris is a true male pop singer. He's also being very smart about the songs he's choosing and is able to make a song fit his voice and still make it sound fresh. Pros: Like Blake, he's different from the rest of the guys. He's choosing more current songs which allow us to imagine what he'd sound like on the radio. His good looks and winning smile will also help carry him in the competition. Cons: His voice is a little unusual. While I like it, I can see how some people will quickly be turned off and will start complaining that he has a nasal quality to it. There's a fine line that he straddles on sounding great and sounding nasal. Will he be able to walk that line through the whole competition?

Chris Sligh - Chris has the best personality of the whole bunch. He seems like a fun guy to be around. Not to mention he's got a good, soulful voice. However, after the week of the semi-finals he has quieted down considerably. Does he think his comments to Simon may have hurt him? Will we see his witty personality resurface now that he's made it into the Top 12? Pros: He has a great stage presence and looks like he really enjoys performing. He also knows how to pick great songs that fit his voice. This combination will serve him well in the weeks ahead. Cons: While he's picking great songs, the songs aren't really showcasing his full voice. I have a feeling he's got a lot more there that we haven't seen yet. He's going to need to start pulling some surprises or we're gonna get bored pretty quickly. He also needs to rely on his personality for some part. I feel that Chris is a lot like Taylor, in that he's more about stage presence and performing rather than pure vocal talent.

Gina Glocksen - Gina reminds me of Kelly Clarkson in a way. She's got a strong voice that's part rock and part pop. She's made some interesting choices so far in the competition and has been able to handle them pretty well. It seems like she can sing most genres and still sound different. Is she the next Kelly Clarkson? No. But she does possess similar qualities that made Kelly stand out. Gina really needs to work on belting her high notes instead of shouting them. If she can do that I think she'll do really well. Pros: She's different from the rest of the women. She's the only pop-rock singer on the women's side. Everyone loves a rocker chick and she fits that role this season. Plus, she's relatable which I think will help her out for a while. Cons: Because she's the "rocker chick" I think she's going to have a hard time selling the themes each week. While she'll be able to sing her songs, her look will probably be changing a lot and people will get confused as to who she is and what she's all about. She's going to have to find a way to still pull off each theme with her edgier quality. Plus, if she doesn't control her shouting she's going to tire out her voice as the weeks go on.

Haley Scarnato - Haley is the surprise of the top 12. I honestly do not know why or how she made it in because Sabrina is definitely better than her. Haley has a nice voice but there is nothing special about it (or her). She's going to have a very tough time making it through each week, mostly because we know nothing about her. She has no personality and is completely forgettable. I don't think I've actually remembered her each week until she comes out on stage and I think "oh yeah. Her." Pros: Well she's got a good voice that's suited for Broadway. There's a nice "clearness" to her tone that is pleasing to listen to. Cons: In a group where many others have already shone and stood out Haley gets lost in the crowd. Unless she pulls out the performance of her life each week I don't see her making it past the 12th spot. There's just too much talent and bigger personalities that she can't get by.

Jordin Sparks - Jordin is a ball of energy that is fun to watch on stage. Every week she looks like she's having a great time and doesn't seem to be affected by anything (which is amazing considering her age). She has a great, powerhouse voice that allows her to easily navigate through songs. Her stage presence is fun and engaging. Pros: Jordin has a great voice that should carry well in the competition. Also, unlike Lisa Tucker (who had a similar voice), she has a fun personality and stage presence. I see Jordin being very much like Diana DeGarmo. She can sing anything and will just have fun doing it. Cons: Jordin doesn't really seem to be aware of how good she really is. She has yet to figure out who she is as an artist and therefore her song selections have been a little erratic. She needs to figure out what's going to work best for her and really showcase the talent she has.

LaKisha Jones - One half of the divas, LaKisha wants this (and needs this). She came out fighting from the very beginning and quickly set herself up as one of the top contenders. So far, she's lived up to the expectations that she's set for herself. Her big voice and almost perfect technique gets you excited everytime she opens her mouth. She's such a nice woman, you can't help but root for her and hope that she does well. Pros: LaKisha is one of the best singers in the competition. She has a big voice that everyone loves to hear. America loves a good belter! With all of the success of Jennifer Hudson recently, LaKisha will be compared to her and will that wave far into the competition. Cons: She make have already peaked. Her first performance was so full of emotion that the next two performance just seemed to lack something. Vocally, they're perfect but her stage presence and emotion of the song left something to be desired. She's going to need to bring back that intensity from her first song or she could suddenly find herself unexpectedly gone, just like JHud and Mandisa.

Melinda Doolittle - The other half of the divas, Melinda is the front runner to win the whole thing. Everything about her just screams star. She has a humble, winning personality, a fantastic voice, great stage presence, and genuinely seems to be shocked at how well she's doing and being received by everyone. How can you not love that? That is what made Kelly Clarkson so much fun to watch. You can see her confidence growing each week. She's picking great song choices, and even when the songs are overdone on Idol she still finds a way to make them fresh and new. Pros: This girl can SAAAAANG! She has jumped from background singer to frontman with ease. Technically, she's probably the best singer in the competition. She knows her strengths and is choosing the right songs to highlight those Cons: Honestly, I can't really think of anything that she's got going against her. I think that if she continues to be shocked by everyone's reactions, the public may start questioning her sincerity. However, if she keeps exactly what she's doing now she should have no problem taking the whole thing.

Phil Stacey - In Phil's initial audition I thought he was ok, but nothing special. In fact, I was actually surprised that they put him through. But in the semi-finals I was really surprised with what I heard. Phil has a really soulful voice that lends itself quite nicely to ballads. He also has a good, commanding stage presence that almost lends himself to being the rocker of the bunch. Although he had a bad performance last week, I think he'll learn from it and bounce back this week. Pros: He has a great voice that's different from the rest of the guys on here. When he's on he's one of the best. As long as he keeps picking the right songs he'll do really well. Cons: He still has problems starting a song. It's always in the wrong key. Once he finally gets to the chorus he's able to pull it together and nail the rest of the song. People are going to become less forgiving of this as the show moves on. He needs to learn to start out on key and stay there rather than using the chorus to find the correct key.

Sanjaya Malakar - While it isn't a surprise that Sanjaya is here, I have to say that he doesn't belong in the Top 12. He has a good voice and a winning smile but when he's on stage he shows no charisma or emotion. All of his performances seem to be nothing more than karaoke on a bigger stage; and even then, karaoke singers get more into the songs than he does. Pros: He's got a pretty voice and is probably able to pull the teeny girl/grandma votes. Cons: While his voice is pretty, it lacks emotion and power therefore he isn't able to do anything with it. The fact that he feels he should have gone home two weeks ago isn't helping build his confidence (as evident by him looking down at his feet pretty much everytime he performs and has to stand in front of the judges). There really is no reason for him to be in this competition now (other than the teeny girls keeping him in). That being said, I see him staying for at least 3 more weeks, leaving the competition in 10th place.

Stephanie Edwards - I was very happy to see Stephanie make it through. I had a feeling she'd be fighting Sabrina for that last spot because they were very similar in styles. I think Stephanie has a great voice. Her voice, looks and stage presence remind me a lot of Fantasia (but Stephanie's voice is more accessible to people). Pros: She knows to sell her performances and sound good while doing it. She's got another powerful voice and knows how to use it effectly. Cons: Because she's another power singer, she's going to be competing with Melinda and LaKisha. Unfortunately, Stephanie isn't at the same caliber. She's going to have to try really hard to distinguish herself from the other two. As always, song selection will be the key with her.

So there you go. That's how I think everyone stacks up leading into tomorrow's Top 12 night. It's going to be fun to finally compare the men and women when they go head to head. Based off of the semi-finals alone I make the following predictions: Haley will be the first to go home. LaKisha will be a "shocker" elimination. Melinda and Blake will go head to head in the finals. Melinda will win it all. I am definitely looking forward to everything starting!